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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

However the current race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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